Uno de los gestores que más admiro es Seth Klarman.  Sin ser tan mediático como Buffett o Soros es una de las figuras más respetadas del Value Investing. Para aquellos que no lo conozcan os comparto unas líneas con su perfil en Gurufocus:

Seth Klarman is a value investor and Portfolio Manager of the investment partnership The Baupost Group. Founded in 1983, The Baupost Group now manages $7 billion, and has averaged returns of nearly 20% annually since their inception. Seth Klarman is the author of the book “Margin of Safety” which sells for over $1000. Mr. Klarman attended Cornell University where he received a degree in economics, and later attended Harvard University where he earned an M.B.A.

Su valioso libro(tanto en contenido como en precio) Margin of Safety fue el que me hizo apasionarme por el Value Invsting y a pesar de haber leido un sinfin de libros después de ese sigue estando entre mis favoritos. Si no queréis pagar el precio prohibitivo del libro podéis leer este interesate report de Safal Niveshak  sobre el mismo, 30 Big Ideas from Seth Klarman’s Margin of Safety

Margin of safety

Os dejo por abriros el apetito algunas de las frases de Seth Kl arman que tengo entre mis notas:

Individual and institutional investors alike frequently demonstrate an inability to make long-term investment decisions based on business fundamentals. Whereby temporary price fluctuations become the dominant focus.

 

Most investors are primarily oriented toward return, how much they can make, and pay little attention to risk, how much they can lose.

Valuation is an imprecise art, the future is unpredictable.

Speculators are obsessed with predicting the direction of stock prices. Trying to predict it is a waste of time.

In investing, there are times when the best thing to do is nothing at all.

“The risk of an investment is described by both the probability and the potential amount of loss. The risk of an investment—the probability of an adverse outcome—is partly inherent in its very nature. A dollar spent on biotechnology research is a riskier investment than a dollar used to purchase utility equipment. The former has both a greater probability of loss and a greater percentage of the investment at stake.

In the financial markets, however, the connection between a marketable security and the underlying business is not as clear-cut. For investors in a marketable security the gain or loss associated with the various outcomes is not totally inherent in the underlying business; it also depends on the price paid, which is established by the marketplace. The view that risk is dependent on both the nature of investments and on their market price is very different from that described by beta.

While security analysts attempt to determine with precision the risk and return of investments, events alone accomplish that. For most investments the amount of profit earned can be known only after maturity or sale. Only for the safest of investments is return knowable at the time of purchase: a one-year 6 percent T-bill returns 6 percent at the end of one year. For riskier investments the outcome must be known before the return can be calculated. If you buy one hundred shares of Chrysler Corporation, for example, your return depends almost entirely on the price at which it is trading when you sell. Only then can the return be calculated.

Unlike return, however, risk is no more quantifiable at the end of an investment that it was at its beginning. Risk simply cannot be described by a single number. Intuitively we understand that risk varies from investment to investment: a government bond is not as risky as the stock of a high-technology company. But investments do not provide information about their risks the way food packages provide nutritional data.

Rather, risk is a perception in each investor’s mind that results from analysis of the probability and amount of potential loss from an investment. If an exploratory oil well proves to be a dry hole, it is called risky. If a bond defaults or a stock plunges in price, they are called risky. But if the well is a gusher, the bond matures on schedule, and the stock rallies strongly, can we say they weren’t risky when the investment after it is concluded than was known when it was made.

There are only a few things investors can do to counteract risk: diversify adequately, hedge when appropriate, and invest with a margin of safety. It is a precisely because we do not and cannot know all the risks of an investment that we strive to invest at a discount. The bargain element helps to provide a cushion for when things go wrong.”

“While some might mistakenly consider value investing a mechanical tool for identifying bargains, it is actually a comprehensive investment philosophy that emphasizes the need to perform in-depth fundamental analysis, pursue long-term investment results, limit risk, and resist crowd psychology.”

Totalmente recomendables son también sus cartas anuales donde puede aprenderse más que en cualquier clase de la universidad.

Vamos a revisar su cartera y los cambios realizados en el Q4 de 2017

Nuevas posiciones

Time Warner Inc. (TWX) y Sentinel Energy Services (NASDAQ:STNLU)

TWX es posición de arbitraje.  En Octubre de 2016, AT&T (T) acordó adquirir Time Warner en cash y acciones pagando $107.50 por acción. El acuerdo está pendiente de la aprobación de las autoridades pertinentes y TWX cotiza actualmente $94.31.

STNLU es una SPAC(Special Purpose Acquisition Company) establecida por antiguos ejecutivos de Schlumberger (SLB) para adquirir un negocio energético.

Posiciones incrementadas

Medios de comunicación, recursos naturales y distribución farmaceútica principalmente.

Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX) (FOXA) , Allergan plc (AGN), Qorvo Inc. (QRVO), Antero Resources Corporation (AR), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), AmerisourceBergen (ABC) , Cardinal Health (CAH), McKesson Corp. (MCK), Veritiv Corporation (VRTV), AMC Entertainment (AMC) y NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG)

En mi cartera comparto con Klarman Mackesson y Express Scripts y en el punto de mira tengo alguna otra como Synchrony financial, Allergan, Antero Resources o Pioneer Natural Resources.

En este post de Seeking Alpha encontraréis un análisis mas detallado de sus posiciones.

En la siguiente tabla proporcionada por Seeking Alpha podéis ver su cartera actualizada a 31/12/2017 como véis bastante concetrada en sus primeras posiciones.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/2/14/106657-15185919708107061_origin.jpg

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